Page 181 - Cyber Defense eMagazine January 2024

incursions have probably never been found. Some researchers are also worried China is trying to position
itself in a way it could try to paralyze U.S. critical infrastructure in case of an eruption of conflict between
the two countries over the issue of Taiwanese or Philippine waters.

External Threat Landscape Management (ETLM)

The meeting between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping in San Francisco produced an agreement to partially
restore previous channels of military-to-military communication, suspended by Beijing in August 2022.
While resumption of some military-to-military dialogues is welcome, the agreement does not restore pre-
2020 levels of defense communication between the U.S. and China. More senior strategic defense policy
dialogues, such as those previously held at the undersecretary or assistant secretary level, do not appear
to have been restored.

US officials blame China’s increasingly aggressive stance for more unsafe intercepts. Communication
gaps amid tensions will hinder crisis de-escalation. Crisis prevention progress is elusive as both sides
use military and cyber posturing, reflecting an intractable disagreement over Western Pacific operational
rights. As Taiwan and the US approach presidential elections, the political climate will likely remain
fraught with risks and tensions.

China’s longstanding strategy of escalating actions appears poised for further intensification. The
Chinese Communist Party backed Global Times has already predicted “more severe collisions,” and in
the immediate future, there is a high probability that China will damage or sink a Philippine Coast Guard
vessel or one of the smaller Philippine government-chartered vessels. Additionally, the heavily armed
Chinese ships could fire warning shots to further demonstrate their growing determination, with other
actions also possible. In such a tense environment, large state-sponsored cyberattacks remain a very
real threat.

About the Author
Resident International Relations Analyst at Cyfirma, working for
technology companies in Southeast Asia and the US since graduation
from International Security Studies at Charles University in Prague in
2019. He focuses on international relations and security issues,
especially on those revolving around West-East

Stan can be reached online at ([email protected],
https://twitter.com/FogOfWarCZ, etc..) and at our company website
https://www.cyfirma.com

Cyber Defense eMagazine – January 2024 Edition 181
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