Page 234 - Cyber Defense eMagazine RSAC Special Edition 2025

C. The "Harvest Now, Decrypt Later" (HNDL) Strategy

These marketplaces highlight the viability of the strategy called "harvest now, decrypt later" (HNDL). CISA
warns that threat actors, particularly nation-states, are collecting encrypted data now, anticipating future
decryption via quantum computers. The data types most likely targeted are those with enduring value,
such as government secrets, intellectual property, and sensitive personal or financial records.

V. Unlocking the Past: The Impact of Quantum Decryption

A. Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computers

Predicting when quantum computers can break current encryption standards remains complex. Some
experts are forecasting the first quantum computer capable of breaking RSA-2048 encryption will be
available within the next 5 to 10 years, potentially as early as 2029 or 2030. However, some other experts
believe this timeline is further out, suggesting it might take until 2034 or even 2044 for such a quantum
computer to be available.

B. Implications and Time Sensitivity

Quantum decryption of data stolen using current standards could have pervasive impacts. Government
secrets, more long-term data, and intellectual property remain at significant risk even if decrypted years
after a breach. Decrypted government communications, documents, or military strategies could
compromise national security. An organization's competitive advantage could be undermined by trade
secrets being exposed. Meanwhile, data such as credit card information will diminish over time due to
expiration dates and the issuance of new cards. However, compromised personal information poses long-
term risks like identity theft and fraud, even years after exposure.

C. AI’s Role in Enhancing Quantum Decryption Capabilities

Artificial intelligence (AI) further amplifies the threat to encrypted data. AI could potentially optimize
quantum decryption algorithms. AI could also rapidly analyze decrypted data, helping threat actors
identify and exploit valuable information. This synergy between quantum computing's decryption power
and AI's analytical capabilities could significantly increase the impact and effectiveness of cyberattacks.

VI. Post-Quantum Cryptography

A. Leading PQC Algorithm Solutions

Several families of PQC algorithms have been selected by The National Institute of Standards and
Technology (NIST) as replacements for current vulnerable methods.

Lattice-based cryptography (CRYSTALS-Kyber and CRYSTALS-Dilithium) is a key encapsulation
mechanism (KEM). Lattice-based cryptography relies on two difficult mathematical problems. The first,
Learning With Errors (LWE), gives a set of linear equations with small errors added. This makes
recovering the original value extremely difficult. The second, Short Integer Solution (SIS), requires finding

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